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Navigating Sea Level Rise
Uncertainty Training:
Current and Future Flood Risks in
Cape Canaveral
City of Cape Canaveral City Hall
March 8, 2022
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Resilience in Cape
Canaveral
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The 2015 Florida Legislature directed jurisdictions that
have a Coastal Management Element as a part of their
Comprehensive Plan to include a redevelopment
component with principles that must be used to
2015
eliminate inappropriate and unsafe development in the
Section 163.7138(2)(f)1-6, Florida
Statutes.
State establishes “Peril of Flood”
Community Planning Requirements.
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-2017 to
update its Comprehensive Plan to develop the coastal
management element and include policies that indicate
the City’s willingness to pursue adaptation planning
2017
Ordinance No. 10-2017 .
forth principles, guidelines, standards and strategies to
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In 2019, the City completed its first vulnerability
assessment in conjunction with the East Central Florida
from the Florida Department of Environmental Protection
2018/19
(FDEP)—the report created by the ECFRPC examines the
Resilient Cape Canaveral
Vulnerability Assessment.
impacts sea-
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EastCentralFloridaRegionalResilienceActionPlan
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Resilient Cape Canaveral (Vulnerability Assessment)
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The City of Cape Canaveral (City) partnered with the East
Central Florida Regional Planning Council (ECFRPC) and
University of Florida (UF) to
2020/21
Develop “peril of flood” policies, building on previously
Comprehensive Plan review, Land
conducted stakeholder engagement, vulnerability analysis,
Development Codes review, etc.
Audit/recommendations for the stormwater master plan and land
Develop potential Enhanced Resilience Area (Adaptation Action
Area)
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Resilient Cape Canaveral Action Plan (2021)
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South Atlantic Region:
Green Infrastructure
Interventions
South Atlantic Sea Grant Regional
Resilience Research
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Partner
Communities&
Institutions
General Timeline of Sea Level Rise Impacts
on the Built Environment
Ground floor
Saltwater flooding of
houses and
flooding of
yards and commercial
Stormwater
roadsbuildings
drainage issues
Saltwater Flooding of Flooding of
infiltration into ancillary high value
underground structures critical
wastewater (pavilions, infrastructure
systems sheds, etc.)such as
wastewater
facilities and
electrical
substations
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Figure by Emily Niederman, Stetson University
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City of Cape Canaveral, Center St. drainage
June 13, 2021
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Cape Canaveral, Center St. Outfall (September 2021)
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Waterlevelgaugeinstallation,
CenterSt.Outfall
“Environmental
Innovation
Corridor”
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Drone Mission,
Central Blvd.
February 17, 2022
UAV Imagery
Central Blvd. Site
UAV Imagery
Thurm Blvd. Site
What to do in a 1960s built-out environment already
being impacted by sea-level rise and coastal flooding?
1)The short answer –seize every opportunity to retrofit with green infrastructure
and LID in the urban environment
2)The longer answer –redirect (and reimagine) stormwater by:
a)Strategically breaching curbs to infiltrate into pervious uplands (e.g., pocket rain gardens)
and/or holding/treatment within wet bioswales
b)Incentivizing homeowners to install cisterns/rain barrels, as well as redirecting property-level
stormwater toward pervious cover
c)Removing unnecessary impervious cover (and not unnecessarily creating more impervious
cover)
d)Redirecting pipe flow into large infiltration basins and/or storage facilities, reducing direct
discharge burden into the lagoon
e)Engaging up front with the challenges of investment and maintenance… with objectively
frank contrasts to the foreseeable price of business as usual (increased flooding, algal
blooms, fish kills, etc.)
f)Acknowledging that there is no such thing as a permanent “solution”… but that well-
conceived interventions and management practices will bring both immediate and long-
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term benefits
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https://www.epa.gov/sites/default/files/2016-
02/sustainable_community_green_infrastructure_plan_0.jpg
Approaches for
Addressing Sea Level
RiseUncertainty
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Not a Set “Path”
for SLR Resilience
How much
•Similar elements
•Information
SLR should I
•Action plan
•Implementation
plan for?
•Additional similarities
•Stakeholder
engagement/buy-in
•Data gathering
•Revisiting
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How much SLR should I plan for?
•This is not the right question
•Replace it with:
How should I deal with uncertainty
in SLR for this instance?
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How much SLR should I plan for?
•This is not the right question
•Replace it with:
How should I deal with uncertainty
in SLRforthis instance?
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How much SLR should I plan for?
•This is not the right question
•Replace it with:
How should I deal with uncertainty
in SLR for this instance?
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Step One: Understanding Why
There Are Scenarios
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Three major reasons for scenarios
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1 –We do not know how much carbon will be in the atmosphere.
Three major reasons for scenarios
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1 –We do not know how much carbon will be in the atmosphere.
Three major reasons for scenarios
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2 –Natural variability
Three major reasons for scenarios
3 –Still studying the ice sheet melt –the science to watch!
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EastCentralFloridaRegionalResilienceActionPlan
Range of what
is scientifically
possible
Not all of them are
equally as likely!
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Step Two: Identifying a scenario
for dealing with uncertainty
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Approaches for Addressing SLR Uncertainty
Risk tolerance
Scenario planning
Adaptation pathway
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Approaches for Addressing SLR Uncertainty
•Commonalities
•Stakeholder integration
•Permit decision-making in an uncertain future
•Require clear goals & objectives
•Can be used as standalone or in combination
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Risk Tolerance
•Leverages exceedance probabilities
•Considers project specific-risk tolerance & timeline
•Well suited for:
•Stable projects and locations (e.g., fixed critical
infrastructure)
High Tolerance for Risk
•Conservation purchases
•Built/non-living structures
Moderate Tolerance for
•Things that are really important or really unimportant
Risk
•Not well suited for:
•Dynamic environments (e.g., beaches/dunes)
•Some aspects of restoration activities (e.g., marsh
platform design)
Low Tolerance for Risk
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Scenario Planning
•Explores plausible not probable futures
•Considers outcomes of specific management actions
•Identifies actions that work under many futures
•Well suited for:
•Complex situations with multiple interactions
•Natural resource management
•Mid-level importance
•Not well suited for:
•Simple situations
•Critical infrastructure/Low-risk tolerance projects
•High-risk tolerant projects
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Adaptation Pathways
•Series of adaptation strategies
•Pathway developed from tipping points
•Allows for action based on observed changes
•Actions build on each other
•Well suited for:
•Dynamic systems (e.g., dunes/beaches)
•Low-budget situations
•Not well suited for:
•Low adaptive capacity situations
•Multiple-drivers of change relevant to the question
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Adaptation Pathways
•Nourish beach to current •Nourish beach to
•Identify suitable actions
current footprintfootprint –0.5 ft
•Test effectiveness of each action under
•Nourish beach to historic •Nourish beach to
different SLR scenarios
historic footprintfootprint –2.0 ft
•Identify tipping points
•Raise dunes •Raise dunes–2.0 ft
•Arrange into a pathway
•Elevate driveways •Elevate driveways–2.5 ft
••Bury rock wall under Bury rock wall under
Our Example: Reduce erosion and
dunes dunes-> 3.5 ft
impacts toflooding along beaches
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Adaptation Pathways
Nourish
Beach
Nourish
Beach +
Raise
Dunes
Elevate
Driveways
Bury Rock
Wall
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Things to Remember
•Again… no right answer to which approach to use
•Consider the complexity of the question, the importance of the project/effort, the
adaptability, etc.
•This is not everything needed to plan for SLR
•These are suggested approaches for dealing with uncertainty in the amount of rise
•SLR resilience is an ongoing process
•Need to gather information, plan, implement, review, revisit
•Science will continue to update
•Climate change and SLR projections are not getting better
•New reports show that we are not doing enough and need to do more
•Be aggressive, be bold, continue to plan today
•Vulnerability assessments will need to be revisited frequently
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habeels@ufl.edu
Jevans1@Stetson.edu
tmccue@ecfrpc.org
Thank you!
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